This project focuses on the push by Bolivian social groups to nationalize the country's natural gas supply. President Carlos Mesa called a referendum which fell far short of complete nationalization, and ultimately lost his presidency. This resulted in the election of Evo Morales soon thereafter.

These newly-declassified cables show the frustration of US Embassy staff with the social groups, and with the nationalization drive in general. It also shows an ambassador well-aware of the potential for groups like Morales' to succeed, while also giving "legitimacy" to many of the grievances brought by these groups.

"Groups Call for Early Elections and Nationalization." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 18 May 2004. Confidential [originally unclassified, made confidential during FOIA review]. Cable Number: La Paz 001610. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"Thousands of Bolivian Workers Union (COB) representatives marched on downtown La Paz May 17. Following President Mesa's declaration that the upcoming referendum did not include a nationalization option, an unlikely coalition of actors has called for early elections to replace Mesa and for nationalizing Bolivia's gas reserves...Joined by a number of its affiliates, the COB is demanding that the Government forego the referendum in favor of directly nationalizing the nation's natural gas reserves..."

"'Prisoners of Their Rhetoric': Why Radicals Demand the Impossible." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 21 May 2004. Confidential. Cable Number: La Paz 001660. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Ambassador David N. Greenlee provides a cynical analysis of Bolivia's social movement. "Radical groups have found fertile ground in Bolivia's widespread peverty and continuing political exclusion, which give undeniable legitimacy to the country's culture of protest and social unrest...With over 60% of the population living in poverty (about 30% live below subsistence level)...Bolivia is one of the poorest countries in the hemisphere.

"...[The political system] disregards the interests of the vast majority: the working poor, the peasantry, and the unemployed. These facts give a compelling moral legitimacy to the country's culture of protest and social unrest, which (as a result) cannot be dismissed as mere radicalism and irresponsibility run amuck...COB insiders tell us that it has become de rigeur for labor leaders to demand the sun and the moon from the Government in the hopes of gaining an inch or two in actual negotiations.

"...When we press our social sector interlocutors for an explanation of the logic behind their nationalization proposal, it becomes clear that they understand almost nothing about its complicated technical, economic, and legal dimensions, and even less about the realities of the gas industry itself. They also acknowledge (at least in private) that, in making this radical demand, they are principally trying to force the Government to yield on unrelated issues or, barring that, to fold its tents and call for new elections."

"Tuto Warns of Nationalization, Growing Instability." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 26 May 2004. Confidential. Cable Number: La Paz 001720. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Ambassador Greenlee met with the former Bolivian President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga (served from August 2001-August 2002). This heavily-excised cable discusses Quiroga's "trenchant" and "often sobering" analysis.

"Beni Violence Leaves Three Dead; 'Mallku' Resigns Parliamentary Seat." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 2 June 2004. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001794. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

The first part of this cable discusses a June 1 ambush in the city of San Pablo. The army was sent in to disperse a protest, and ended up taking fire. "Evo Morales has already stated that Mesa should be tried in court if he was responsible for ordering armed troops into San Pablo."

An apparently unrelated civic strike was announced in El Alto. "In explaining their action (which they claimed would paralyze the city), the organizations' leaders cited their opposition to the planned July 18 gas referendum and called for the nationalization of Bolivia's natural gas reserves."

"Companies Pessimistic About Hydrocarbons Sector in Bolivia." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 7 June 2004. Confidential. Cable Number: La Paz 001851. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Deputy Chief of Mission David M. Robinson reported, "In the run-up to Mesa's July 18 natural gas referendum, here continues to be little communication between the [Government of Bolivia] and the hydrocarbons industry. At least some companies are under direct orders from their headquarters not to negotiate, lest is hurt their possible arbitration claims. 'Everyone is resigned to what is coming,'" a source told Robinson.

"Referendum: Social Sectors Split, Government Confident of Win." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 9 July 2004. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 002212. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"The Congressional Tribunal will soon rule on whether participation in the referendum should be 'mandatory,' and thereby determine (potentially) whether a crucial ten percent of otherwise disinclined Bolivian voters will turn out to vote on July 18. In a sign of deepening social sector 'split' on the issue, certain groups continue to threaten to block or boycott the vote, while others have pledged to defend it."

"Referendum: Government Confident of Victory, Observers Focus on 'Day After.'" Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 14 July 2004. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 002261. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Bolivian government officials "believe that an unequivocal victory on voting day will give the Government the public legitimacy it needs to shape a coherent hydrocarbons policy, and to ship to Parliament (with the expectation that it will pass) a draft hydrocarbons law that implicitly enjoys broad public support...A persistent criticism of the vote has been that it will exacerbate rather than bring to closure the ongoing debate about whether Bolivia should be able to exploit and export its natural gas, and also whether Bolivia should nationalize its reserves."

"Transport Strike Continues, Blockades Down." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 26 August 2004. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 002718. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"The national confederation of transport workers decided in its August 26 general meeting in Santa Cruz that it would give the [Government of Bolivia] one week to comply with the demand that gas prices be frozen for one year. Confederation leader Angel Villacorta told us that, if this demand was not met, the confederation would initiate on September 2 a two-day nation-wide transport strike and also call for the nationalization of Bolivia's gas reserves. (Comment: It is not immediately clear how the transport workers got from A to B, but connecting the price of gas to Bolivia's larger hydrocarbons issue was only a matter of time. End Comment.)"

"MAS March Rings Gas Nationalization Bell." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 31 August 2004. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 002761. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"The MAS-sponsored nation-wide August 30 march turned out to be massive in Cochabamba but less so in other parts of the country, including La Paz. In Cochabamba, the MAS's home turf, approximately ten thousand people marched peacefully in the late afternoon calling for the nationalization of Bolivia's gas reserves. One contact who witnessed the march told us that the vast majority of protestors were cocaleros...He also said that MAS leader Evo Morales had made fiery public remarks at the rally warning the Government to listen to 'the voice of the people' or risk future demonstrations on a much larger scale."

"Scene Setter for Treasury Undersecretary Taylor." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to US Embassy Santiago and State Department Headquarters. 1 September 2004. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 002773. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

John B. Taylor, Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, was heading to Bolivia. This briefing for his trip is rather enlightening. "The [Government of Bolivia's] decisive victory in the July 18 gas referendum gave a great, if already fading, political boost to President Mesa. It also succeeded in giving the Government the legitimacy it lacked beforehand and brought him some (limited) room to maneuver. But it did little to clarify or resolve the prolonged debate on how or whether the country should exploit and export its significant gas reserves."

"...Also worrying is the absence of meaningful private sector participation in the debate over the law. Our hydrocarbons sector contacts have complained that the Government has not 'consulted with' them so much as 'shown' them the de facto results of the evolving discussion at different points along the way."

"Official Informal: Regional Economic Policy and Submit Review: September 7 - 10." Cable from State Department Headquarters to Western Hemispheric Affairs Diplomatic Posts. 15 September 2004. Confidential. Cable Number: State 198725. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

This cable contains a series of informal, uncleared newsletters assembled by by the State Department's Bureaus of Western Hemisphere Affairs and Economic Policy and Summit Coordination. A number of these newsletters remain classified ("China in the Western Hemisphere/Haiti," for instance). However, regarding Bolivia:

Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega "met with the Bolivian Minister of Economic Development Horst Grebe and Minister of Finance Javier Cuevas to stress the need to pass a hydrocarbons law that does not discourage foreign investment and that allows for economic development...[Assistant Secretary] Randy Quarles delivered a stern message to Bolivian Minister of Economic Development Horst Grebe that the proposed hydrocarbons law could jeopardize continued funding from international donors."

From a second newsletter: "...A second draft hydrocarbons bill law that would annul existing contracts and force companies to migrate to new contracts within 180 days. Hydrocarbons companies are outraged. The bill retains a high tax rate, approximately 50%, which hydrocarbons firms say will kill investment in the sector."

"Bolivia's Hydrocarbons Law and the Politics of Fear." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 1 October 2004. Confidential. Cable Number: La Paz 003130. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Several companies "are reportedly negotiating consensual agreements, while others are prepared to proceed with arbitration if necessary...The four major areas under discussion are taxes vs. royalties, commercialization, ownership, and the re-founding of the state petroleum company YPFB. MAS continues to insist on a 50% royalty, while the Executive branch and other political parties are proposing a combination of royalties and taxes which will total 50%..."

"El Alto, Santa Cruz End Protests, Consider Next Steps." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 13 January 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 000129. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Discusses protests in El Alto and Santa Cruz. "A number of other groups, each with its own agenda, are reportedly planning to join the protests starting Monday, January 17. These include the Sole Confederation of Campesino Workers (CSUTCB), led by radical Aymara leader Felipe Quispe, and the Yungas coca growers and Chapare-based cocalero federations associated with the MAS. Their demands run the gamut from a restoration of gas subsidies to nationalization of the hydrocarbons industry and Mesa's immediate ouster."

"Refresher on Presidential Succession Scenarios." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 4 April 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001044. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Explores scenarios for succession "If President Carlos Mesa topples from his improbable high-wire act above a familiar tumult of conflicting demands. He has no safety net in the Congress, the traditional parties, or mobilized social groups, and nobody is interested in helping him avoid the political pain of passing a reasonable hydrocarbons law, ground zero for social conflict...The best outcome from our perspective is that Mesa risks promulgating a law friendly to continued investment and survives the expected backlash to remain in office until scheduled elections in August 2007. That seems increasingly difficult. Just as likely, Mesa may simply allow the Congress to pass an expropriatory law and let it go into effect without his signature, preserving momentary social peace and holding onto office while deflecting eventual blame to the legislature for wrecking the gas sector."

Should Mesa leave, "The military high command consistently has demonstrated taht it knows its constitutional role and wants no part of the mess it would inherit by sticking a knife into the civilian government."

"Pressures Mounting on Mesa." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 11 May 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001501. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"As the gas law continues in limbo, pockets of mostly unconnected unrest proliferate around the country." A hostage situation developed in Santa Cruz, with 60 people held in captivity, allegedly by the Landless Movement. This cable is critical of Mesa, whose "televised remarks, far from resolving the uncertainty surrounding the hydrocarbons law, have prolonged and deepened the debate."

"Bolivia: Mesa Reconsiders Options on Gas Bill." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 13 May 2005. Confidential. Cable Number: La Paz 001520. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

This heavily-excised cable discusses "working for socialism in stages, e.g., 50 percent royalties today, nationalization of the gas sector tomorrow, mining and other resources later." An attempt to use a line-item veto to change the bill collapsed.

"Media Reaction: Afghanistan Uzbekistan Russia UN Bolivia EU-China; Berlin." Cable from US Embassy Berlin to State Department Headquarters. 18 May 2005. Cable Number: Berlin 001635. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

Reprints an editorial from the "right-of-center" Die Welt of Berlin.

"Bolivia Braces for More Unrest." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 27 May 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001657. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"President Mesa's popular support has dipped below 50 percent for the first time. Concerned Bolivians from a range of sectors have stepped up their probes of U.S. policy, seeking an openness to presidential succession or early elections as a way out of the crisis. In response, we have reaffirmed our support for the current constitutional order and President Mesa's central place in it."

"Growing Calls for Nationalization While Petroleum Companies Ponder Options." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 6 June 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001744. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"As Bolivia's political and social upheavals continue, protestors increasingly call for nationalization of the hydrocarbons sector...Jaime Solares, leader of the COB (Bolivian Labor Confederation), stated June 1 that nationalization of Bolivia's gas sector was the unifying cry of the protestors and nationalization alone would end the current proests...While the hydrocarbons sector remains the focus of those calling for nationalization, some protestors are calling for nationalization of the mining sector and/or the expulsion of all multinational companies."

"Meanwhile, the petroleum companies are exploring different legal options...Other companies have delayed any immediate reaction to the law pending resolution of the current political crisis since they are unsure of the present government's longevity...While hydrocarbons companies delay legal action to consider their options, some in Bolivia are beginning to question if the companies ever intend to act and were only bluffing. We do not doubt that serious legal challenges are coming from some companies, but these may take time to materialize. Therefore, we are being careful not to make statements which get ahead of the plans of the U.S. industry players."

"As Church Leads Dialogue, Protests and Demand for Nationalization Surge." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 6 June 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001743. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"Church leaders met in Santa Cruz during the June 4 - 5 weekend with President Mesa and senior Government Ministers, Presidents of the Congress and Lower House...and President of the Supreme Court... Little information about the substance of the Church's talks has surfaced publicly, but we understand the sketchy agreement centered on a transition period leading to early general elections... Evo Morales held a press conference in Plaza Murillo in La Paz to give his preliminary response to the reported outlines of the accord. Evo dismissed the planned early general elections as failing to meet the demands of the Bolivian people, which he clarified were for the nationalization of all of the country's natural resources (not just the gas sector) and for a Constituent Assemby that would change the 'neo-liberal' model of the state that had done 'so much harm' to the country's poor."

"Mesa Offers to Resign; Bolivia Paralyzed by Blockades as Congress Seeks to Deliberate." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 7 June 2005. Sensitive. Cable Number: La Paz 001753. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"In a June 6 televised address at 9:30 PM, as protestors encircled Plaza Murillo in downtown La Paz, a weary and defeated-looking President Mesa offered his resignation." The President of Congress, Hormando Vaca Diez, "told the Ambassador that Congress could initiate its deliberations by Wednesday June 8, preferably in La Paz but in Sucre if necessary...El Alto and campesino representatives remain mobilized. many have dismissed the President's offer to resign as irrelevant while continuing to insist on their central demand: the nationalization of gas."

"Whirling Events in Bolivia." Cable from US Embassy La Paz to State Department Headquarters. 9 June 2005. Confidential. Cable Number: La Paz 001778. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

"Media Reaction Bolivia Colombia Argentine Foreign Debt Negotiations Fight on Drug Trafficking 06/10/05; Buenos Aires." Cable from US Embassy Buenos Aires to State Department Headquarters. 10 June 2005. Cable Number: Buenos Aires 001428. Source: Freedom of Information Act release (2005-05-130) to Keith Yearman.

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. This page was updated on July 6, 2007.